Analysis of power plant investment scenarios in the Hungarian electricity system

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Sőrés Péter Márk
Department of Electric Power Engineering

Hungary will be experiencing major hardships in the upcoming years if the consumers' demand for a continuous and reliable electric power supply is to be met. The power plant system, the base of electricity generation , is obsolete and the majority is facing retirement. The need for a large-scale increasement of the power generation capacity is a given if the growing problem of our import dependency is to be overcome, but the combined impact of the present uncertain state of energy policies and the ever decreasing willingness to invest does not give a clear picture of the foreseeable future.

In the first half of my thesis I'm searching for the answers to the questions posed by the unpredictable effects made by the energy market's current state on the progress of Hungary's electricity generating system. I explain the most relevant aspects of our power generation structure, and present the composition and status of the country's power plants. I also discuss a few researches exploring the future of supplying th electricity demand int the next decades.

In the second part of my thesis I'm attempting to find my own answers to the questions to the problems stated previously. I'm doing this by making up possible future scenarios and examining the impacts made on the status of electricity generation. I'm investigating a reference model, the consequences of extreme natural gas prices, and the results of a renewable friendly energy policy on the investments for new power plants. Finally I'm analysing and comparing the constructed energy mixes.


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