The electricity consumption of residential customers gives one third of Hungary’s electricity end-use, so the changes in household electricity consumption affect many parties of the power system. The objective of this thesis is to examine the structure of residential electricity consumption and to forecast the expected consumption using bottom-up strategy.
The consumption of residential sector was defined as the aggregate of elementary component’s (consumer segments, appliances) consumption. The forecast consists of two parts: the analysis of annual changes in the consumption, and the analysis of changes in future household electricity load profiles. The forecasts are based on penetration trends of different appliances, and on energy efficiency trends, therefore, creation of such consumer profiles was needed, which are the aggregate of some appliances. The authentic determination of some appliance’s load profiles needs a huge amount of measurement data, so in this thesis, they were determined on a hypothetical basis, using fuzzy logic.
The created model is able to take into account and estimate both the annual changes in the sector’s consumption, and factors affecting the load profiles, like future penetration rates of appliances and spread of new, large consumers, like heat pumps and electric vehicles. The thesis also deals with demand-side management, examines how changes in consumer behavior are affecting load profiles.