Analysis of a long-term power plant investment model

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Dr. Divényi Dániel Péter
Department of Electric Power Engineering

Electric power is indispensable in our everyday life, hence the security of supply is crucial. Due to lack of cost-competitive electrical energy storage options, the essence of the security of supply is the equilibrium in the market’s demand and supply. Nowadays the purpose of the private energy companies is the profit maximization and they do not care much about the equilibrium. There is a risk that imbalanced markets in the future could cause higher energy prices. From the customer’s viewpoint it is an obvious negative effect that they cannot use the energy they need. To avoid those situations, it is important to model and simulate the long-term changes in the power system properly – both supply and demand – to ensure the adequacy at fair prices in the future.

The focus of my thesis is to develop a modelling method that simulates the future supply and demand and calculates the energy prices. The estimation is based on power plant building investments and the growing demand. The market circumstances of such investments are also introduced in my work.

I made developments in the existing modelling to provide more accurate forecasts. The shorter time span and more precise determination of cost elements of a power plant eventuated more realistic results. I made some suggestions for the possible further developments to consider the intra-year changes.

After the data gathering for the Hungarian market conditions I simulate several market conformations. Beside the base-case I consider changes in the gas and CO2 prices as well as the effects of the growing demand and changes in the amount of imported energy on the energy prices.


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