Effect of changing electricity demand on generation capacity

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Supervisor:
Sőrés Péter Márk
Department of Electric Power Engineering

In Hungary, due to the aging of the existing power plant fleet and the shut down of various generators, it will be necessary to set up new units to replace the missing capacity in the future. Domestic electricity consumption, on the other hand, grows year after year, and also the amount of energy imported into the country. Conventional power plants, especially hydrocarbons and coal-based derivatives, are constantly in the background due to the low price on the market. State subsidies and policy incentive schemes are causing renewable energy sources and alternative energy demand (eg e-vehicles) to spread widely. Because of this many new questions may arise regarding the distribution of power plant capacities. My aim is to track these changes with the utmost efficiency.

In my thesis, I introduce the domestic resource structure, including the fixed and variable cost structures of the power plants, as well as the examination of the technology and capacity measurements. I categorized the domestic power plants according to their technology and presented in order of production according to their production costs. Thus get the Hungarian Merit Order. After that, I studied a process which categorizes the optimal distribution of all built-in capacities between power plants based on the unit price of energy. During this process, the modifying effect of residual load and newcomers emerged.

For this reason I examined a renewable with specific characteristics, the production of photovoltaic, and its influence on domestic production. I have processed German PV data, normalized and parameterized them on the domestic network. I presented several cases here.

I introduce a model, which was made with a Monte Carlo simulation, for charging electric vehicles. The parameters are variable so when I change these indices, I have many opportunities to monitor. Later, the data can be further developed to make more accurate~calculations.

I analyze the correlation of the effects discussed, adjusted to the domestic demand curve, how the optimal capacity distribution between the power plants is formed. This was done on four different scenarios, in which the effects of electric cars and solar panels were examined separately and at the same time also. I summarized the quantified results in tables at the end of the paper.

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