Short-horizon power forecasting of solar photovoltaic plants

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Supervisor:
Dr. Hartmann Bálint
Department of Electric Power Engineering

In my paper, I was observing the short-horizon power-forecasting methods of renewable energy

sources.

At first I made a thorough literature review on the methods and models used for these purposes.

Since later I was looking at data from photovoltaic systems, my literature review focused on solar

forecasting methods, and their advantages and diadvantages. Based on a few examples from

different countries, I studied the effectiveness of these used methods. In this context, I observed

the unified failure measures, used to compare different forecasting methods, as well as the value

of these measures at distinctive models. Besides the foreasting methods, the suitable energy

storage system can increase the efficiency of the usage of solar generated power. Thus I made

literature review on this subject as well.

Based on measurements on the premises of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in Csillebérc, I

observed correlations between different weather characteristics (diffuse, direct, and global

radiation and air temperature) and electricity production. My observations comprise of correlation

on the same day, and on consecutive days as well.

Based on my previous observations and on the size of the solar system, I estimated the

performance and required capacity of the energy storage system, in order to eliminate the effect

of inaccuracies in the production and weather forecasting. Also, I defined which energy storage

technology is the most suitable for the given system.

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