In my paper, I was observing the short-horizon power-forecasting methods of renewable energy
At first I made a thorough literature review on the methods and models used for these purposes.
Since later I was looking at data from photovoltaic systems, my literature review focused on solar
forecasting methods, and their advantages and diadvantages. Based on a few examples from
different countries, I studied the effectiveness of these used methods. In this context, I observed
the unified failure measures, used to compare different forecasting methods, as well as the value
of these measures at distinctive models. Besides the foreasting methods, the suitable energy
storage system can increase the efficiency of the usage of solar generated power. Thus I made
literature review on this subject as well.
Based on measurements on the premises of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in Csillebérc, I
observed correlations between different weather characteristics (diffuse, direct, and global
radiation and air temperature) and electricity production. My observations comprise of correlation
on the same day, and on consecutive days as well.
Based on my previous observations and on the size of the solar system, I estimated the
performance and required capacity of the energy storage system, in order to eliminate the effect
of inaccuracies in the production and weather forecasting. Also, I defined which energy storage
technology is the most suitable for the given system.