Wind measurement and forecasting methods

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Dr. Dán András
Department of Electric Power Engineering

In my thesis I deal with wind measurement, its devices and the methods of wind-forecast created from the measured data.

After the abstract and I am going to highlight the importance of these and the background of the obligation of power scheduling in the detailed description of my task. After that I will explore wind as a power source and the devices that are used nowadays to produce energy from this source. I will deal with the importance of wind speed measurement, the most common methods, its modern devices and the data extracted.

I will introduce two of the instruments are available on the market, the NRG #40C Anemometer and Papouch-TX20ETH Anemometer. I will explore their properties, characteristics and the opportunity of integration.

Later on I am going to focus on the wind forecast making models. I will introduce 4 popular systems which are able to create such forecasts so that we could have a better picture about this field. I will try to make two different forecasts from the data of a one-year-period of the power station working in Kulcs. After this I will try to compare them with the true data measured since then. I will choose 3 similar months from this year, in this case the summer period, and from the two-month-data I will make a forecast for the third month with the methods of WPPT and ANEMOS algorithms. These are very complex systems and that is why I will use only a simple version and just its essence. The forecast will be made on the produced power that comes from the summary of the forecast wind speed and the power curve.

The true data will be taken as a unit at the evaluation and in that case the forecast values will be percentages. After the acknowledgements I will summarize the literature I used.


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