PV Production Estimation for Island Operation in a Smart City Context

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Supervisor:
Dr. Raisz Dávid Márk
Department of Electric Power Engineering

In the course of history, cities have always played an important role. In the future, this role will likely increase with the acceleration of of globalisation and urbanisation processes.

According to certain forecasts, 70% of the Earth’s population (about 6 billion people) will live in cities by 2050. This situation can be interpreted as an „illness” caused by globalisation. This „illness” has to be treated, not symptomatically, but we have to get to the roots of the problem: we have to prepare for the evolving situation, the foundation of the future has to be layed today. The solution or „medicine” for the problem is based on several pillars. My aim in this paper is a complex presentation through these pillars using a linear structure, while focusing on Power Engineering.

First of all, I will focus on the demographic and technical background of the new city model and I will define what a Smart City means. As a proof of concept, I will present already realised projects. This chapter will be closed with the presentation of the breakthrough power distribution system reformed by smart- and microgrids.

With the rise of the population, a significant increase of energy consumption can be projected. The energy demand can not be covered by fossil energy sources only, we also need renewable ones.

Next, I will give an overview of the Renewable Energy Directive of the European Union, then I will give an insight into Hungary’s Renewable Energy Action Plan. Finally, the goals achieved by Hungary and other Member States will be presented.

The driving force of solar cells is solar energy itself. In this chapter, the concept of solar energy and the way solar rays reach Earth’s surface will be introduced to the reader. Subsequently, solar radiation, sunshine hours and cloud cover of Hungary will be analysed.

In the next chapter, the working principle and types of solar cells will be explained. Next, the effects of weather factors on solar cells will be considered, my goal is to create an algorithm which is able to forecast the effective power of solar panels, taking weather factors into consideration.

In this thesis I will point out power-critical errors of existing solar panel systems, based on my measurement experiences.

Finally I would like to find an answer to the innovative question of island operation in the case of detached houses, office complexes or other urban buildings.

The final highlight of my work was the fabrication and analysis of my own monocrystalline Si solar cell and proving the possibility of island operation.

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