Day-ahead schedule prediction of traction power

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Supervisor:
Dr. Divényi Dániel Péter
Department of Electric Power Engineering

In Hungary 2% of the whole electricity consumption is used for railway electric traction. This kind of utilization which is hugely variable in time and place has special requirements. Therefore a day-ahead prediction about the power-demand of the railways is necessary and important information both for the railway companies and for electricity providers.

In my thesis I would like to firstly introduce how the power-supply system and the electrical equipment works in the railways, than the participants and the fundamental functions of the electricity market will be discussed. The main object of my current study was to develop a model by which the traction power-need of different trains could be estimated. After presenting the context between the acceleration performance of trains and the train resistance, based on these my work will provide a dynamic model which can be applied to estimate electricity consumption. The research was carried out on a chosen day (03/18/2015) in trains traveling on railway line 21 which was operated by the GYSEV. For fitting and testing the model, consumption and position data of locomotives and the power of the substation transformers was used. Finally the model was converted so it have the ability to count and estimate the electricity consumption of the following day as accurate as possible using only the railway schedule data.

The scheduled electricity-consumption model was implemented in MATLAB environment and the used measurement data for the study was provided by the GYSEV Ltd.

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