Analysis of the ligthning protection risk management

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Dr. Szedenik Norbert
Department of Electric Power Engineering

This Master Thesis Project studies lightning protection risk management. CENELEC recieved the first edition of standard IEC 62305-2:2006 and transformed it into hungarian standard MSZ EN 62305-2. The second edition (IEC 62305-2:2010 Ed. 2) will be published in this year (2012) by CENELEC. In this thesis the risk management part of these standards was examined.

In practice, during the planning phase the risk calculation is done by simply following the guidelines and instructions of the standards. The standards contain mathematical formulas and parameter values needed for the risk assessment, but do not give any information about the theoretical background and the procedure leading to them. One of the main objects of this work was to qualitatively and quantitatively investigate the guidelines of the standard.

The first part of this thesis presents the general definition of risk and the process of risk management, followed by a summary of risk assessment methods suggested in the two editions. Structure of the standard was not change, but in the second edition new formulas and parameters were introduced.

As propability theory is the essential a theoretical basis of risk management, the thesis also contains the description of the most relevant terms and distributions, which is needed for the meaningful explanation and interpretation of risk.

Finally it was investigated how the resulting risk is affected by the individual risk components and the different parameters. For this sensitivity analysis was used, and the sensitivity of the resulting risk to the different parameters was determined. The sensitivity calculations were done for two cases, a country house and an office building (case studies of the standards), using both editions. The results make it possible to make standardization more efficient in the future, by focusing on the parameters to which the resulting risk is most sensitive.


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